近35年吉林省玉米气候适宜度及其变化
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S513

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吉林省任务下达式课题(2015020);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所2016年开发基金课题(2016SYIAE02)


Variation of Climate Suitability of Maize in Jilin Province of the Last 35 Years
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    摘要:

    利用吉林省50个气象站1981~2015年的气象数据及玉米产量数据,利用模糊数学方法建立吉林省分区域玉米逐旬温度、降水、日照时数和气候适宜度模型,并利用加权分析法计算玉米全生育期、营养生长期、营养生长与生殖生长并进期、生殖生长期的单要素适宜度和气候适宜度,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:玉米全生育期、营养生长期各区域基本是日照时数适宜度最高,其次是温度适宜度,降水适宜度最低;并进期多数情况下温度适宜度最高,降水适宜度仍然最低;而生殖生长期日照时数适宜度最高,温度和降水适宜度不同区域不同年份高低不定。因此,水分是影响吉林省玉米生长发育的主要关键气象因子。各时期降水适宜度均呈西低东高的特点,导致气候适宜度基本也是西低东高。气候适宜度在各区域生殖生长期以及东部的并进期呈不显著上升趋势,其他各生育时期各区域均呈不显著的下降趋势。

    Abstract:

    Based on yield data of maize and daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2015 of 50 automatic meteorological stations, temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and climate suitability models were established in every ten days in each region with the method of fuzzy mathematical method. Then suitability of single factor and climate suitability in the whole stages, vegetative stage, stage of vegetative and reproductive, reproductive stage was calculated using the method of weighted analysis, and their temporal-spatial variation characteristics were analyzed. The result showed that in the whole stages and vegetative stage, suitability of sunshine duration was the highest, next was the temperature, and suitability of precipitation was the lowest. Suitability of temperature in most cases was the highest in the stage of vegetative and reproductive, while suitability of precipitation was still the lowest. In the reproductive stage, suitability of sunshine duration was the highest, but suitability of temperature and precipitation were unstable in different regions and different years. Therefore, water content was the key meteorological factor that affected the development of maize in Jilin Province. Suitability of precipitation in west was lower, while in east was higher, which result in the climate suitability has the same characteristics. Climate suitability in reproductive stage in all regions, and stage of vegetative and reproductive in east were rising but not significant, the others were declining.

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邱美娟,王冬妮,王美玉,张玥滢,吴昕悦,肖楠舒,王亚明.近35年吉林省玉米气候适宜度及其变化[J].东北农业科学,2019,44(1):70-78.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-08-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-12-04
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