吉林省羊肉价格变动特征及原因分析
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F323.7

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科技部国家星火计划项目(2015GA660006);吉林省科技发展计划项目(20150412001XH)


Characteristics and Causes of Mutton Price Changes in Jilin Province
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    摘要:

    近几年来羊肉价格波动幅度较大,为研究羊肉价格波动的特征和形成原因,笔者以吉林省为例,以吉林省2000~2017年羊肉价格月度数据为基础,采用X-12季节调整法和HP滤波法对羊肉价格的波动特征进行分析。结果表明,吉林省羊肉价格总体上呈上升趋势,价格变动的原因主要是不规则要素和季节因子的影响,在剔除了二者的影响之后,吉林省羊肉价格在变动过程中分别出现“∩”型、“V”型、“∪”型、“V”型特征的4个跨年波动周期。最后提出了稳定羊肉价格的建议。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, mutton price fluctuates greatly. In order to study the characteristics and causes of mutton price fluctuation, the author took Jilin province as an example and based on the monthly data of mutton price in Jilin province from 2000 to 2017,adopted X-12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of mutton price. The results showed that the mutton price in Jilin province showed an overall upward trend, and the main reason for the price change was the influence of irregular factors and seasonal factors. After removing the influence of the two factors, four inter-annual fluctuation cycles of "∩" type, "V" type, "federation" type and "V" type were found in the variation process of the mutton price in Jilin province. Finally, some suggestions were put forward to stabilize mutton prices.

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邓云泽.吉林省羊肉价格变动特征及原因分析[J].东北农业科学,2019,44(6):69-73.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-06-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-12-04
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