2019年中国大豆市场形势回顾和2020年展望
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F323.7

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农业农村部软科学课题(2018105)


Soybean Market Review of 2019 and Its Prospect of 2020
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    摘要:

    在大豆生产者补贴、轮作补贴等政策推动下,自2017年开始国产大豆连续三年增产。2019年大豆种植面积已达1.4亿亩,比上年增加1 382万亩,增幅10.9%;产量增至1 810万吨,比上年增加215万吨,增幅13.5%。2018年以来,中美经贸摩擦导致美豆出口中国受阻,2019年中国进口美豆继续减少,国际大豆期货价格触及十年低点;从南美进口的大豆占比高达80%左右。展望后市,国产大豆供给能力有望继续提高,总体消费水平预计稳中有增,如果中美第一阶段经贸协议能够签署并执行,大豆进口量有望增加到8 500万吨以上;全球大豆连续四年增产后首次减产,供需宽松格局面临转折。

    Abstract:

    Under the policy of soybean producer and crop rotation subsidies, domestic soybean production has increased for three consecutive years since 2017. The soybean planting area in 2019 has reached 140 million mu, an increase of 13.82 million mu or 10.9% over the previous year. The output increased to 18.1 million tons, an increase of 2.15 million tons or 13.5% over the previous year. Since 2018, Sino-U. S. economic and trade frictions have hindered the export of U. S. soybeans to China, and China’s imports of U. S. soybeans continue to decrease in 2019.The international soybean future prices have hit a 10-year low. The soybean imported from South America expected to account for about 80%. Looking ahead, the domestic soybean supply capacity is expected to increase continually,the overall national consumption is expected to increase steadily, soybean import is expected to attain 85 million tons. The global soybean production decreased for the first time after four consecutive years of production increase,and the loosen pattern of supply and demand is facing a turning point.

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殷瑞锋.2019年中国大豆市场形势回顾和2020年展望[J].东北农业科学,2020,45(1):45-49.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-01-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-26
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