基于气候适宜度指数的吉林省春玉米单产预报研究
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S165+.27

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中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金(2016SYIAE02);吉林省气象局项目(201608)


Yield Prediction of Spring Maize Based on Climate Suitability Index in Jilin Province
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    摘要:

    利用吉林省1980~2014年春玉米产量、生育期以及逐日气象资料,从春玉米生长发育的上限温度、最适温度、下限温度、需水量和需光特性等生物学特性出发,构建春玉米生长季逐旬温度、降水、日照时数及综合气候适宜度模型,经过与相对气象产量进行相关以及回归分析,根据气候适宜度指数建立7~8月逐旬的产量动态预报模型,对吉林省春玉米产量进行动态预报。结果表明:各时段建立的产量预报模型均通过0.01水平的有效性检验,能够客观反映春玉米生长期内气象要素状况;各预报模型的历史回代检验平均准确率均大于88.9%,均方根误差小于15.0%;历史回代拟合的气象产量与实际气象产量在年际变化上具有较好的一致性,两者相关性通过0.01水平的显著性检验;1981~2011年间各旬单产趋势预报准确年份在21年以上。各时段预报模型对2012~2014年的外推预报结果不稳定,准确率分别在97.0%、88.5%、66.8%以上,趋势预报2014年不准确。总体上,建立的产量预报模型可为吉林省春玉米产量预报提供重要依据。

    Abstract:

    Considering the upper limit temperature,the optimal temperature,the lower limit temperature,the water and sunshine demand of spring maize growth and development,the model of ten-day temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and comprehensive climate suitability of spring maize was established,which took advantage of spring maize yield,developmental stages,and daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2014 of Jilin Province.And based on the correlation and regression analysis with meteorological yield,dynamic yield forecast model of spring maize yield based on climate suitability indexof each ten-day during July and August were established. The results showed that the yield forecast models in different periods all passed the validity test at the level of 0.01,and could reflect the status of meteorological factors in growing stages of spring maize objectively. The average accuracy rate of the yield dynamic prediction model of historical fitting test was all greater than 88.9% and the standardized RMSE was less than 15.0%. Interannual variation between actual relative meteorological output and relative meteorological output by yield dynamic prediction model had good consistency,and the correlation between them passed the significance test at the level of 0.01. From 1981 to 2011,the yield tendency forecast accuracy of every ten days was more than 21 years. The extrapolation forecast accuracy of 2012-2014 in each period was unstable,which was 97.0%,88.5% and 66.8%,respectively. The tendency prediction of year 2014 was inaccurate. Generally,the production forecast model was set up to provide important basis for agricultural meteorological yield forecast of Jilin Province.

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王丽伟,邱美娟,邱译萱,许晖,徐昕,马云飞.基于气候适宜度指数的吉林省春玉米单产预报研究[J].东北农业科学,2020,45(1):68-72.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-10-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-26
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