Abstract:Considering the upper limit temperature,the optimal temperature,the lower limit temperature,the water and sunshine demand of spring maize growth and development,the model of ten-day temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and comprehensive climate suitability of spring maize was established,which took advantage of spring maize yield,developmental stages,and daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2014 of Jilin Province.And based on the correlation and regression analysis with meteorological yield,dynamic yield forecast model of spring maize yield based on climate suitability indexof each ten-day during July and August were established. The results showed that the yield forecast models in different periods all passed the validity test at the level of 0.01,and could reflect the status of meteorological factors in growing stages of spring maize objectively. The average accuracy rate of the yield dynamic prediction model of historical fitting test was all greater than 88.9% and the standardized RMSE was less than 15.0%. Interannual variation between actual relative meteorological output and relative meteorological output by yield dynamic prediction model had good consistency,and the correlation between them passed the significance test at the level of 0.01. From 1981 to 2011,the yield tendency forecast accuracy of every ten days was more than 21 years. The extrapolation forecast accuracy of 2012-2014 in each period was unstable,which was 97.0%,88.5% and 66.8%,respectively. The tendency prediction of year 2014 was inaccurate. Generally,the production forecast model was set up to provide important basis for agricultural meteorological yield forecast of Jilin Province.