“一带一路”倡议下中国对沿线国家进口的影响因素与增长空间分析——以粮食为例
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F752

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河南省科技厅软科学研究项目(212400410331)


Influence Factors and Growth Space Analysis of China's Imports from Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative: A Case Study of Grain
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    摘要:

    “一带一路”新时期背景下,中国与沿线国家粮食贸易合作也面临新的阶段,与此同时,我国粮食供应及需求缺口正逐步增加。在这一大环境下,本文分析了我国与沿线各国粮食贸易互补程度,并在基础引力模型的基础上,引入人口总数、粮食产量、贸易自由度、是否有共同边境线、是否同属于上海合作组织、是否同属于世界贸易组织等可能影响进口贸易的变量进行回归分析,并利用模型对增长空间进行了估计。研究发现,中国与沿线各国的粮食贸易互补程度有所差异,但主要为产业间贸易。在现有贸易模式下,中国与大多数沿线国家仍有非常可观的进口提升空间。依照以上分析结果,点明了对应的举措以及策略意见。

    Abstract:

    Under the background of "The Belt and Road" in the new era, the food trade cooperation between China and countries along the Belt and Road is also facing a new stage. At the same time, China's food supply and demand gap is gradually increasing. In this background, this article analyzed our country along with the national food trade complementary degree, and based on the gravity model, on the basis of introduction of population, food production,trade freedom, whether to have a common border, whether both belong to the Shanghai cooperation organization,whether both belong to the WTO may affect the import trade of variables such as regression analysis, and use the model to estimate growth space. It is found that the degree of grain trade complementarity between China and countries along the line is different, but it is mainly inter industry trade. Under the existing trade model, there is still considerable room for import improvement between China and most countries along the line. According to the above analysis results, the paper points out the corresponding measures and strategic suggestions at the end.

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刘怡.“一带一路”倡议下中国对沿线国家进口的影响因素与增长空间分析——以粮食为例[J].东北农业科学,2021,46(5):101-106.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-26
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