Abstract:In recent years, the focus of China’s pig breeding industry has gradually shifted to the central and western regions. As a potential development area of pig production in China, the trend of large-scale breeding in Yunnan Province is becoming more and more obvious. However, at present, the scale of Yunnan Province is not high, and the overall anti-epidemic and anti-risk ability of regional industries is insufficient, which easily leads to huge fluctuations in the price of live pigs, thus forming a "pig cycle". Based on the monthly series data of Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2020, this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of pork prices in Yunnan Province through seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering. The empirical results show that pork prices in Yunnan Province are seasonal in the short term and cyclical in the long term. By establishing VECM model, this paper analyzes that the current pork price in Yunnan Province was negatively affected by the previous pork price, pig price and compound feed, and positively affected by the live pig price and corn price. On the basis of empirical research, the paper puts forward some targeted suggestions and measures based on other influencing factors.