云南省猪肉价格波动及其影响因素的实证分析
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F323.7

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云南农业大学创新创业行动基金项目(2023Y0124)


Empirical Analysis of Pork Price Fluctuation and Its Influencing Factors in Yunnan Province
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    摘要:

    近年来,我国生猪养殖产业重心逐渐向中西部转移。云南省作为我国生猪生产的潜力发展区,规模化养殖趋势愈发明显。但目前云南省的规模化程度不高,地区行业整体抗疫病、抗风险能力不足,容易导致生猪价格出现巨大波动,进而形成“猪周期”。本研究基于云南省2006-2020年月度时间序列数据,通过季节调整和H-P滤波法研究云南省猪肉价格的波动特征,实证结果表明云南省猪肉价格短期存在季节性,长期存在周期性的特点;通过建立VECM模型进行实证分析,结果表明:云南省当期猪肉价格受到上一期猪肉价格、猪仔价格、配合饲料的负向影响,受到活猪价格和玉米价格的正向影响。并在实证研究基础上,综合其他影响因素提出有针对性的建议措施。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, the focus of China’s pig breeding industry has gradually shifted to the central and western regions. As a potential development area of pig production in China, the trend of large-scale breeding in Yunnan Province is becoming more and more obvious. However, at present, the scale of Yunnan Province is not high, and the overall anti-epidemic and anti-risk ability of regional industries is insufficient, which easily leads to huge fluctuations in the price of live pigs, thus forming a "pig cycle". Based on the monthly series data of Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2020, this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of pork prices in Yunnan Province through seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering. The empirical results show that pork prices in Yunnan Province are seasonal in the short term and cyclical in the long term. By establishing VECM model, this paper analyzes that the current pork price in Yunnan Province was negatively affected by the previous pork price, pig price and compound feed, and positively affected by the live pig price and corn price. On the basis of empirical research, the paper puts forward some targeted suggestions and measures based on other influencing factors.

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付昕雨,王姝蕲,王冉冉,李业荣.云南省猪肉价格波动及其影响因素的实证分析[J].东北农业科学,2024,49(6):107-112.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-18
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