基于高粱种植区的倒春寒风险精细化评估——以贵州仁怀市为例
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S426;S514

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贵州茅台集团项目(MTGF2022046);贵州省气象局创新团队项目(黔气科合TD【2024】06号)


Risk Assessment of Late Spring Cold Disaster in Sorghum Cultivation Areas—A Case Study of Renhuai City, Guizhou, China
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    摘要:

    基于贵州省1991-2020年84个国家观测站资料、DEM高程数据和高粱产量等数据,采用自然灾害风险理论,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性、承载体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力等评价因子,构建高粱倒春寒风险评估模型,开展高粱倒春寒精细化气候风险评估与区划研究。仁怀市轻级、中级、重级和特重级倒春寒平均发生频率分别为32.25%、19.25%、13.65%和7.70%,整体以轻级和中级灾害为主,灾害发生频率与海拔呈正相关,不同等级倒春寒发生频率空间分布上整体一致,高频发区主要分布在仁怀市东部和南部、低频发区主要分布在西部和北部等地;倒春寒致灾危险性指数为0.12~0.24,敏感性指数为0.52~0.99;茅台镇、鲁班街道办事处、茅坝镇、长岗镇、苍龙街道、喜头镇、高大坪镇和火石镇等地单产变异系数为0.27~0.39;仁怀市高粱倒春寒高风险区主要分布在苍龙街道北部、学孔镇中部、高大坪镇中部和西南部、长岗镇东部、后山乡南部、火石镇中部局地等地,约占研究区总面积13.18%,中高、中、中低和低风险区分别约占研究区总面积的26.25%、28.22%、21.12%和11.23%。区划结果可以反映出仁怀市倒春寒灾害的分布情况,对优化高粱产业布局、提升防灾减灾能力具有较好的指导意义。

    Abstract:

    Based on meteorological data from 84 national observation stations in Guizhou Province from 1991 to 2020, DEM elevation data, and sorghum yield data, the study applies the theory of natural disaster risk. Four evaluation factors were selected such as the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the exposure of the disaster-prone environment, the vulnerability of the carrying body, and the capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. A risk assessment model for sorghum's late spring cold damage is constructed to carry out refined climate risk assessment and zoning research. The average occurrence frequencies of late spring cold damage at different levels in Renhuai City are 32.25%, 19.25%, 13.65%, and 7.70%, respectively. The overall disaster is mainly mild and moderate,with a positive correlation between the frequency of disaster occurrence and altitude. Spatially, the high-frequency areas are mainly distributed in the eastern and southern parts of Renhuai City, while the low-frequency areas are mainly in the western and northern parts. The disaster-causing risk index of late spring cold damage ranges from 0.12 to 0.24, while the sensitivity index ranges from 0.52 to 0.99. In places such as Maotai Town, Luban Sub-district Office,Maoba, Changgang, Canglong Sub-district, Xitou Town, Gaodaping Town, and Huoshi Town, the coefficient of variation in yield is between 0.27 and 0.39. The high-risk areas for sorghum late spring cold damage in Renhuai City are mainly in the northern part of Canglong Sub-district, the central part of Xuekong Town, the central and southwestern parts of Gaodaping Town, the eastern part of Changgang Town, the southern part of Houshan Township, and some areas in the central part of Huoshi Town, accounting for about 13.18% of the total area of the study area. The areas of high, medium-high,medium, medium-low, and low risk account for about 26.25%, 28.22%, 21.12%, and 11.23% of the total area of the study area, respectively. The results can reflect the distribution of late spring cold damage in Renhuai City, providing a reference for optimizing the layout of the sorghum industry and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, which has good practical guidance significance.

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张波,胡家敏,于飞,刘宇鹏,陈芳,古书鸿.基于高粱种植区的倒春寒风险精细化评估——以贵州仁怀市为例[J].东北农业科学,2025,50(2):49-59.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-16
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