As greenhouse gas emissions rise, climate change is intensifying, and analyzing ecologically suitable areas for apple cultivation and their environmental trends in China is crucial for orchard planning and production. Based on 194 geographical distribution records of apples(Malus domestica) and data on 27 environmental factors, this study analyzed the potential suitable habitats for apples across China and the key environmental factors constraining their geographical distribution, and further predicted changes in future potential suitable habitats under different carbon emission scenarios. The results indicated that the area under the curve(AUC) values for both the training and validation datasets of the MaxEnt model for cultivated apples exceeded 0.9, indicating high reliability of the predictions. Compared with the total suitable area under contemporary cultivation(2.231 million ha), the total suitable area under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario(SSP1-2.6) during 2040-2060(2050s) is projected to decrease slightly to 2.171 million ha, whereas under the high emission scenario(SSP5-8.5) it is projected to increase significantly to 2.757 million ha. During 2060-2080(2070s), the total suitable area for apple cultivation is predicted to increase substantially under both low and high emission scenarios. The main environmental factors limiting apple distribution are, in order of importance, mean annual precipitation, soil pH, mean temperature in the coldest season, soil organic carbon content, and altitude, with mean annual precipitation exerting the greatest influence on the geographic distribution of apples.