This study utilized meteorological observation data and rice yield data in Yangzhou City from 1988 to2017, combined with the physiological characteristics of rice in the Jiangsu Province. The influence of temperature,sunshine, and precipitation suitability on rice climatic yield was quantified, leading to the construction of a comprehensive climate suitability evaluation model for rice. Based on this, a rice yield prediction model was established by analyzing the quantitative relationship between the climate suitability index and climatic yield in Yangzhou, with both historical fitting tests and forecast verification conducted on the model. The results indicated that a significant correlation between comprehensive climate suitability and climatic yield, demonstrating that the index effectively represents the integrated impact of climatic conditions on rice yield formation. The model performed well in both historical fitting and trial forecast tests, providing a reliable scientific basis for the analysis and prediction of rice yield.