Abstract:To explore the coupling relationship between economic development of Chinás cultivation sector and carbon emissions, and promote green and high-quality development of the cultivation industry, this study constructed a dual-system evaluation framework for cultivation economy and carbon emissions based on panel data of 13 provinces in Chinás major grain-producing areas from 2006 to 2023. The entropy method, modified coupling coordination degree model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were comprehensively applied to investigate the coupling coordination and spatiotemporal evolution of cultivation economic development and carbon emissions. Results showed that the overall coupling coordination degree in major grain-producing areas exhibited a gradual upward trend (average annual growth rate: 0.5%-2.5%), with strong policy relevance. From 2006 to 2010, the growth rate was slow, with the development focus on increasing grain production. From 2011 to 2019, steady growth was observed, and the growth rate accelerated significantly after 2015 due to policy impacts. After the proposal of the "dual carbon" target in 2020, the coupling coordination degree entered a high-quality development stage: several provinces including Hebei and Sichuan exceeded 0.7, reaching the intermediate coordination stage; by 2023, most provinces had achieved barely coordinated or primary coordination stages. The global Moran′s I indicated a weak positive correlation during 2006-2010, which turned negative in 2011-2013. After 2014, the negative correlation weakened, and regional differences gradually narrowed. However, the coupling coordination degree remained low in some northeastern and southern regions. It is necessary to promote coordinated development through adoption of low-carbon technologies, optimization of planting structures, and cross-regional collaboration.