粮食主产区种植业经济发展与碳排放耦合协调及时空演化
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F323

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烟台市教育局校地融合项目(2022XDRHXMQT24);中国农业大学烟台研究院引导性课题(Z202304)


Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Evolution of Economic Development and Carbon Emissions in the Cultivation Sector of Major GrainProducing Areas
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    摘要:

    为探究我国种植业经济发展与碳排放耦合变化情况,实现种植业绿色高质量发展,基于2006-2023年我国粮食主产区13省面板数据,构建种植业经济与碳排放双系统评价体系,综合运用熵值法、修正耦合协调度模型及空间自相关分析,探究种植业经济发展与碳排放耦合协调及时空演化。结果显示,粮食主产区耦合协调度整体呈逐渐上升趋势(年均增幅0.5%~2.5%),且政策关联性较强。2006-2010年增速较缓,发展中心在粮食增产;2011-2019年稳步增长,尤其2015年后受政策影响增速明显加快;2020年“双碳”目标提出后,粮食主产区耦合协调度进入高质量发展阶段,河北、四川等多省份突破0.7进入中级协调阶段,到2023年多数省份进入勉强协调或初级协调阶段。全局莫兰指数显示,2006-2010年呈弱正相关,2011-2013年转为负相关,2014年后负相关性趋弱,区域差异逐步缩小,但部分东北地区、南方地区耦合协调度仍较低,需通过低碳技术适配、种植结构优化及跨区域协作推动协同发展。

    Abstract:

    To explore the coupling relationship between economic development of Chinás cultivation sector and carbon emissions, and promote green and high-quality development of the cultivation industry, this study constructed a dual-system evaluation framework for cultivation economy and carbon emissions based on panel data of 13 provinces in Chinás major grain-producing areas from 2006 to 2023. The entropy method, modified coupling coordination degree model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were comprehensively applied to investigate the coupling coordination and spatiotemporal evolution of cultivation economic development and carbon emissions. Results showed that the overall coupling coordination degree in major grain-producing areas exhibited a gradual upward trend (average annual growth rate: 0.5%-2.5%), with strong policy relevance. From 2006 to 2010, the growth rate was slow, with the development focus on increasing grain production. From 2011 to 2019, steady growth was observed, and the growth rate accelerated significantly after 2015 due to policy impacts. After the proposal of the "dual carbon" target in 2020, the coupling coordination degree entered a high-quality development stage: several provinces including Hebei and Sichuan exceeded 0.7, reaching the intermediate coordination stage; by 2023, most provinces had achieved barely coordinated or primary coordination stages. The global Moran′s I indicated a weak positive correlation during 2006-2010, which turned negative in 2011-2013. After 2014, the negative correlation weakened, and regional differences gradually narrowed. However, the coupling coordination degree remained low in some northeastern and southern regions. It is necessary to promote coordinated development through adoption of low-carbon technologies, optimization of planting structures, and cross-regional collaboration.

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朱艾青,杨承宇,王智熠.粮食主产区种植业经济发展与碳排放耦合协调及时空演化[J].东北农业科学,2025,50(4):102-111.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-13
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